Department of Economic and Social Affairs Current Affairs

UN: India to become more Populous than China by 2024

According to the World population Prospectus: The Revision released by the United Nations, India with 1.3 billion inhabitants would surpass China’s population of 1.4 billion by 2024, to become the World’s populous country.

Salient Highlights

Despite the drop in universal fertility rates, the UN report expects the world’s total population to hit 9.8 billion by 2050. As per the report, the world’s population is at present 7.6 billion up from 7.4 billion last year. The increase in population was spurred by the relatively high levels of fertility in developing countries. With an addition of 82 million people every year, UN expects a continuation of the upward trend in population size. At this rate, the world population is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and surpass 11.2 billion in 2100.

As per the report, the concentration of global population growth in the poorest countries is presenting a challenge. The population growth is expected to come from the 47 least developed countries where the fertility rate is around 4.3 births per woman. At this rate, the population in these countries would reach 1.9 billion people in 2050. It presents a challenge as the world seeks to implement the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, which is aimed to end poverty and preserve the planet.

Further, the birth rates in African countries are expected to at least double by 2050, despite fertility rates falling from 5.1 births per woman up to 2005 to 4.7 births in the five years following. In contrast, birth rates in Europe are seeing an increase which has increased up to 1.6 births per woman, up from 1.4 births in 2000-2005.

As per the report, the overall reduction in fertility rates is expected to result in the ageing population, with the number of people above the age of 60 or over is likely to become more than double by 2050 and triple by 2100, from the current 962 million to 3.1 billion. Africa which has the youngest age distribution for any region is expected to experience a rapid ageing of its population.

According to the report, Nigeria which is currently at the seventh place is expected to become the third most populous country by 2050 replacing the US.

World population Prospectus: The Revision

The 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-fifth round of official United Nations population estimates prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The findings are presented for each development group, income group, region, subregion and country or area for the period 1950-2100.

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