According to recently released OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026, India will be the world’s largest milk producer by 2026 and will account for the biggest increase in wheat production globally.
Key Highlights of Report
Over the ten-year outlook period, world’s population will increase from 7.3 to 8.2 billion, with India and Sub-Saharan Africa accounting for 56% of total growth. Given their strong population growth, India and Sub-Saharan Africa will also drive a large share of global food demand. India’s population will grow to 1.5 billion from 1.3 billion, an increase of almost 150 million. India will overtake China to be the most populous country in the world by 2026.
Calories and protein consumption
Additional calories and protein consumption over the outlook period are expected to come mainly from sugar, vegetable oil and dairy products. By 2026, average calorie availability is projected to exceed 3000 kcal per person per day in other developing countries and reach 2450 kcal in least developed countries. Food insecurity and malnutrition in all its forms will remain persistent global problem that will require a coordinated international approach. Growth in demand for meat is projected to slow, with no new sources of demand.
Global food commodity prices
The global food commodity prices are projected to remain low over the outlook period as demand growth in a number of emerging economies is expected to slow down. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most of the commodities. Agricultural trade is also expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors.
Over the first quarter of the 21st century, milk production in India will be nearly tripled. Over the course of the outlook period, milk production in India will grow 49% and in 2026, India will become the world’s largest milk producer, with an output one-third above European Union, second largest producer.
Global production of wheat is projected to increase by 11% over the outlook period, while the wheat area will increases only by 1.8%. The increase in wheat production is expected to occur through higher yields, most notably in Asia and Pacific, which will account for 46% of additional wheat production. Within the region and globally, India (15 million metric tonnes) will account for the biggest increase in production. Pakistan (6 Mt) and China (5.5 Mt) are also expected to have significant gains. The European Union will account for 13% of the production increase.
Rice production is expected to grow by 66 Mt and will be exclusively driven by yield growth, which will account for 93% of additional production. The global area dedicated to rice production is expected to increase by only a 1% from the base period, while global yields will increase by 12%. Major production gains are projected for India, Myanmar, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam with yields expected to increase by over 15%.
FAO: It is Rome based specialised agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger across the world.
OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development): It is Paris based an intergovernmental economic organisation with 35 member countries, founded in 1960 to stimulate economic progress and world trade.