GoI releases First Advance Estimates: GDP Growth Rate predicted as 5%

On January 7, 2020, the CSO (Central Statistics Office) operating under Ministry of Statistics and Programme implementation released the first advance estimates of GDP number for the fiscal year 2020. The numbers are in line with the predictions of Reserve Bank of India

Highlights

According to the report, the GDP growth is estimated at 5% for the year 2019-20 as against 6.8% in 2018-19. The report says that the deceleration is mainly due to the decline in the growth of manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector grew at the rate of 2% in 2019-20 as compared to 6.9% in 2018-19.

Also, the core sectors and the industrial sectors showed a 11-year drop in GDP growth. There are eight core industries in India. It includes crude oil, electricity, refineries, coal, cement, natural gas, electricity and fertilizers.

The estimates are based on the growth rate in the first two quarters.

Advance Estimate

The first advance Estimate is based on four main factors namely advance estimates of crop production, Index of Industrial Production IIP (of the months April-October, 2019), financial performances of specific firms in the first and second quarter and accounts of state and central governments.

The second advance estimates will be released after Budget.

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