India to be base to economic pole of global growth: Harvard University
According to the research conducted by the Centre for International Development at Harvard University (CID), India will be the base to the economic pole of global growth over the coming decade. The study has stated that over the years, the economic pole of global growth has moved from China to neighbouring India and it is likely to remain over India in the coming decade.
The study has attributed India’s rapid growth prospects to the diversification of the country’s export base which now includes more complex sectors such as chemicals, vehicles and certain electronics. The study further states that India is also particularly well-positioned to continue diversifying into new areas
The research study has warned of a continued slowdown in global growth over the coming decade. With 7.7% annual growth, India and Uganda top the list of the fastest growing economies.
The growth projections indicate that the growth in emerging markets to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly. The study is also optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of South-East Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam.
The major oil economies of the world are experiencing the pitfalls of their reliance on one resource. On the other hand, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that permit more diverse and complex production will have faster growth in the coming years.
The study has found a decline in China’s exports. Its economic complexity ranking has also declined four spots for the first time since the global financial crisis. However, the growth projections for China is still above the world average. China is expected to grow at 4.4% annually in the coming decade.
CID is Harvard University’s leading research hub that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty.
The growth projections arrived by CID at the study are based on each country’s economic complexity, which tells about the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in a country’s exports and the ease with which that country could further diversify its exports by expanding those capabilities.