India population to cross China’s By 2027: UN

According to United Nations report ‘World Population Prospects 2019’, India is projected to surpass China as world’s most populous country in just eight years i.e. by 2027.

Key Findings of Report

Global Population: Despite a slowing global birth rate world population is projected to increase by another 2 billion people by 2050 i.e. from 7.7 billion in 2019 to 9.7 billion by 2050. More than 50% increase will be concentrated in only 9 countries namely- India, Pakistan, the United States, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Egypt Tanzania, and Indonesia. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is also projected to nearly double in coming future.

India: According to report estimates India is expected to add 273 million people by 2050 and will remain most populated until the end of century (2100). In 2019, the estimated population of India is 1.37 billion and of China 1.43 billion, but India is projected to surpass China’s. Thus by 2050, India will be leading the set of nine countries that will make up for more than half of projected growth of global population.

Projected Populous Countries: Following India-China re-ordering in 2027, the ranking of 5 largest countries is projected to remain same until the end of century i.e. by 2100. Therefore, based on an estimated population top 5 world’s populous nation will be- India is projected to remain world’s most populous country with about 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China (1.1 billion), Nigeria (733 million), United States (434 million), and Pakistan (403 million).

Ageing Population: The report projects that overall world’s population is ageing at such a fast rate that by 2050, 1 in 6 people in world will be part of age group of 65 (and above) as compared to 1 in 11 in 2019. Also by end of 2100 world population is set to peak at a level of about 11 billion.

Shrinking Population: Between 2019 and 2050, nearly 55 countries are estimated to face population shrinking by at least 1%. As already since 2010, 27 countries have recorded a minimum 1% decline in population. This declining trend in population being experienced by growing number of countries is attributed to sustained low levels of fertility or even high rates of emigration. China will be the largest of these 55 countries whose population is projected to shrink by as much as 2.2% (about 31.4 million) by 2050.

About World Population Prospects 2019

It published by Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA). WPP 2019 is 26th edition of United Nations population estimates and projections.

It presents population estimates from year 1950 to 2019 for 235 countries or areas by analysing historical demographic trends. WPPP 2019 revision presents population projections to year 2100.

This years WPPP’s presents population estimates and projections describe 2 out of 4 demographic megatrends– population growth and ageing other being migration and urbanization.

Importance: Collectively, these data make up a critical piece of evidence base for monitoring global progress towards achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) by 2030.