Southwest Monsoon Likely to be Below Normal this Year
Independent weather forecaster Skymet has made the following predictions about the Southwest Monsoons:
- India could face its third consecutive below-normal monsoon this season, and the rainfall is expected to be 93% of the long-period average.
- With all likelihood of El Niño playing a disruptive role, there is only a 30% chance of normal rain during this year’s southwest monsoon, which delivers about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and there is a 55% probability of below normal rainfall this year.
- June-to-September southwest monsoon season is expected to begin on a lean note and the deficit is expected to spill over into July.
- Rainfall is expected to get better in the second half of the season as the El Niño phenomenon is expected to weaken.
- August and September are likely to witness normal showers and Odisha, Chhattisgarh and coastal Andhra Pradesh are most likely to see normal rains throughout the season.
Rainfall in the range of 96-104% of the long-period average of 89 cm is considered normal, while a range of 90-95% of this average is considered below normal.