The World Bank in its twice-a-year South Asia Economic Focus report has projected growth rate of 7.3% for India in 2018 and 7.5% for 2019 and 2020. The growth is expected to accelerate from 6.7% in 2017 to 7.3% in 2018 and to subsequently stabilise supported by sustained recovery in private investment and private consumption.
India’s recovering growth will drive South Asia to the fastest growing region. Indian economy has recovered from effects of demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). India should strive to accelerate investments and exports to take advantage of recovery in global growth.
Disruptions from demonetisation and events surrounding implementation of GST led to setback in economic activity and potentially larger negative effect on poor and vulnerable. Private consumption will remain primary driver of growth while services sector and increasingly, industrial sector will lead production growth.
Every month, the working age increases by 1.3 million people and India will need to create 8.1 million jobs a year to maintain its employment rate. The employment rate is declining based on employment data analyzed from 2005 to 2015, largely due to women leaving the job market.