Growth Forecast Current Affairs

Highlights of Economic Survey 2017-18

Union finance Minister Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2017-18 in Parliament during 2018 budget session. The survey was authored by chief economic adviser in the finance ministry Arvind Subramanian. The survey projects economy to grow in the range of 7% to 7.50% in the next fiscal year 2018-19 in the post-demonetisation year. Suvey 2017-18 was in pink colour to highlight gender issues.

Key Highlights of Survey

Growth Forecast: The real GDP growth projections for 2017-18 is expected to be around 6.75%, which is further expected to reach to 7-7.5% in 2018-19 driven by major reforms initiated by the government. There was reversal of declining trend of GDP growth in second quarter of 2017-18. The growth during this period was led by industry sector. Agriculture, industry and services sectors are expected to grow at the rate of 2.1%, 4.4%, and 8.3% respectively in 2017-18. read more..


IMF retains India 2017 GDP growth forecast at 7.2%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its July World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update has retained India’s projected GDP growth rate at 7.2% for 2017-18, slightly up from 7.1% in the previous year.

However, update projects that India’s growth would accelerate to 7.7% in 2018-19. India’s economic growth slowed down to 7.1% in 2016-17, sharply lower than 8% in 2015-16 due to the effect of demonetisation.

Key Highlights of WEO Updates

Global Scenario: The global economic growth rate will be 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018. The economic activity in both advanced and emerging and developing economies is accelerating. Moreover, inflation in advanced economies remains subdued and generally below target and also declining in several emerging economies.

United States growth projections are lower than in April WEO update, primarily reflecting that its fiscal policy will be less expansionary going forward than previously anticipated. The growth also has been revised up for Japan and especially the Euro area, indicating solid momentum in activity in late 2016 and early 2017. Growth in the ASEAN-5 economies is projected to remain robust at around 5 % with increase in global trade and strengthening domestic demand.

Indian Economy: It will be fastest growing major economy in the world and in Asia. According to government estimate, Indian economy is expected to grow 7.5% in the current financial year as abundant monsoon as rains are expected to boost rural income and overall growth.

China’s economy: It is projected to grow by 6.7% in 2017, up 0.1% points from the April 2017 forecast, and 6.4% in 2018, up by 0.2% points from earlier forecasts by the IMF. Despite China’s rise in growth projections, India’s economy will still be the fastest growing among large economies.

About World Economic Outlook (WEO)

The WEO is a survey conducted and published by the IMF. It is published biannually and partly updated two times a year. It portrays the world economy in the near and medium context, with growth projections for up to four years into the future. WEO forecasts include key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, inflation, fiscal balance and current account of more than 180 countries around the globe. It also deals with major economic policy issues.