Growth Forecast Current Affairs

RBI switches back to GDP model from GVA model to measure economy

The Reserve Bank of India switched back to gross domestic product (GDP) model from the gross value added (GVA) methodology to provide its estimate of economic activity in the country. The switch to GDP is mainly to conform to international standards and global best practices.

Key Facts

The GVA methodology gives picture of state of economic activity from producers’ side or supply side whereas the GDP model gives picture from consumers’ side or demand perspective. Globally, performance of most economies is gauged in terms of GDP model. This is also approach followed by multilateral institutions, international analysts and investors because it facilitates easy cross-country comparisons.

Background

Government had started analysing growth estimates using GVA methodology from January 2015 and had also changed the base year to 2018 from January 2018. Even the Central Statistical Office (CSO) has started using GDP model as supply-side measure of economic activity as main measure of economic activities since January 15, 2018.

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Highlights of Economic Survey 2017-18

Union finance Minister Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2017-18 in Parliament during 2018 budget session. The survey was authored by chief economic adviser in the finance ministry Arvind Subramanian. The survey projects economy to grow in the range of 7% to 7.50% in the next fiscal year 2018-19 in the post-demonetisation year. Suvey 2017-18 was in pink colour to highlight gender issues.

Key Highlights of Survey

Growth Forecast: The real GDP growth projections for 2017-18 is expected to be around 6.75%, which is further expected to reach to 7-7.5% in 2018-19 driven by major reforms initiated by the government. There was reversal of declining trend of GDP growth in second quarter of 2017-18. The growth during this period was led by industry sector. Agriculture, industry and services sectors are expected to grow at the rate of 2.1%, 4.4%, and 8.3% respectively in 2017-18. read more..

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