India Meteorological Department Current Affairs - 2019
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts near-normal monsoon, at 96% of long period average. IMD in its first stage operational forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall has made the following predictions:
- The South-west monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal.
- The monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5%.
- The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 was 89 cm.
- Even though weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season its intensity is expected to be reduced in the later part of the season.
IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of June 2019.
Monsoon Predictions are made using a set of algorithms and climate models, both analytical and numerical. Monsoon Mission, an initiative launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in 2017 has two state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems for short range to medium, extended range and seasonal forecasts.
Meteorologists keep a track on five important parameters that can dictate the fate of India monsoon:
- The gradient in the sea surface temperatures between the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans.
- The sea surface temperature over the Equatorial Indian Ocean.
- Sea-level pressure in East Asia.
- Air temperature of the land surface in Northwest Europe.
- The heat content over Equatorial Pacific measured by its warm water volume.
Studies have proposed including various other indicators, such as surface pressure over the Arabian Sea, in such forecasting models to eliminate biases and to make the predictions accurate.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has finally declared that weak El Nino conditions are prevalent in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. IMD predicts that these conditions are likely to persist in the early part of the summer season and likely to weaken thereafter.
The initial impact of a weak El Nino can already be seen with the rising temperatures and heat waves across the country.
Till Mid March IMD was maintaining that “warm ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean” and that they are likely to remain near to the El Nino threshold value during the next two months. The current declaration marks the departure from its earlier predictions.
It is said that the prediction for El Nino has come after a delay since weather agencies in other countries had declared weak El Nino conditions at the beginning of 2019 viz.
- Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) in January had said that El Nino conditions were prevailing and that there was 80 per cent chance of an El Nino phenomenon staying till spring season of 2019.
- Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the National Weather Service in the United States of America also concluded that weak El Nino conditions had formed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean around the same time as Japan.
Further an update by the CPC on March 14, 2019 states that “weak El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 with an 80 per cent probability and summer with a 60 per cent probability”.