Indian Economy Current Affairs - 2019
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Moody’s has released its quarterly Global Macro Outlook for 2019 and 2020. The outlook highlights the following points about India:
- Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.3 per cent in the calendar year 2019 and 2020. The proposed government spending ahead of elections in 2019 will support near-term growth.
- India is less exposed to the slowdown in global manufacturing trade growth when compared to other major Asian economies emerging markets. India is poised to grow at a relatively stable pace in the two years.
- In the financial year, 2018-19 Indian economy is estimated to have grown 7 per cent, lower than 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.
- The direct cash transfer programme for farmers and the middle-class tax relief measures announced in the Interim budget 2019 will contribute a fiscal stimulus of about 0.45 per cent of GDP.
- Although the overall strength of the Indian Banking system is improving, it remains a constraint on the economy.
- The report states that a complete turnaround of the banking system requires more time amid slower-than-expected resolution of legacy problem loans.
The report concludes that with range-bound oil prices, export growth has outpaced import growth for the last two years. Fiscal spending on infrastructure and the rural economy should continue to support domestic activity.
The Central Statistics Office has released the first advance estimates of National Income for 2018-19. The observations made by CSO are:
- Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19, a tad higher from 6.7 per cent in the 2018-18.
- Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is expected to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal as against 6.5 per cent in 2017-18.
- The expansion in activities in agriculture, forestry and fishing is likely to increase to 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal from 3.4 per cent in the preceding year.
- Growth in the manufacturing sector is expected to increase to 8.3 per cent in 2018-19 up from 5.7 per cent in 2017-18.
- The growth in the mining and quarrying sector is estimated to decline from 2.9 per cent in 2017-18 to 0.8 per cent in the current fiscal.
- Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting will also witness deceleration to 6.9 per cent in 2018-19 from 8 per cent in 2017-18.
- The growth rate of public administration, defence and other services will also dip to 8.9 per cent from 10 per cent last fiscal.
- Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services growth is estimated at 9.4 per cent in 2018-19, up from 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.
- The construction sector is expected to grow at 8.9 per cent from 5.7 per cent previous fiscal.
- Financial, real estate & professional services growth will be a tad higher at 6.8 per cent this fiscal against 6.6 per cent in 2017-18.
CSO also estimates per capita net national income during 2018-19 to be at Rs 1,25,397, an increase of 11.1 per cent as compared to Rs 1,12,835 during 2017-18 with the growth rate of 8.6 per cent.
Tags: Agriculture • Central Statistics Office • Fishing • Forestry • GDP • gross domestic product • Gross Value Added • GVA • Indian Economy • Manufacturing Sector • mining and quarrying sector • National Income • Service Sector