Indian Economy Current Affairs - 2019

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Global Macro Outlook for 2019 and 2020

Moody’s has released its quarterly Global Macro Outlook for 2019 and 2020. The outlook highlights the following points about India:

  • Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.3 per cent in the calendar year 2019 and 2020. The proposed government spending ahead of elections in 2019 will support near-term growth.
  • India is less exposed to the slowdown in global manufacturing trade growth when compared to other major Asian economies emerging markets. India is poised to grow at a relatively stable pace in the two years.
  • In the financial year, 2018-19 Indian economy is estimated to have grown 7 per cent, lower than 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The direct cash transfer programme for farmers and the middle-class tax relief measures announced in the Interim budget 2019 will contribute a fiscal stimulus of about 0.45 per cent of GDP.
  • Although the overall strength of the Indian Banking system is improving, it remains a constraint on the economy.
  • The report states that a complete turnaround of the banking system requires more time amid slower-than-expected resolution of legacy problem loans.

The report concludes that with range-bound oil prices, export growth has outpaced import growth for the last two years. Fiscal spending on infrastructure and the rural economy should continue to support domestic activity.

Month: Categories: Business, Economy & BankingUPSC

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India to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19: CSO

The Central Statistics Office has released the first advance estimates of National Income for 2018-19. The observations made by CSO are:

  • Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19, a tad higher from 6.7 per cent in the 2018-18.
  • Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is expected to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal as against 6.5 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The expansion in activities in agriculture, forestry and fishing is likely to increase to 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal from 3.4 per cent in the preceding year.
  • Growth in the manufacturing sector is expected to increase to 8.3 per cent in 2018-19 up from 5.7 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The growth in the mining and quarrying sector is estimated to decline from 2.9 per cent in 2017-18 to 0.8 per cent in the current fiscal.
  • Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting will also witness deceleration to 6.9 per cent in 2018-19 from 8 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The growth rate of public administration, defence and other services will also dip to 8.9 per cent from 10 per cent last fiscal.
  • Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services growth is estimated at 9.4 per cent in 2018-19, up from 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The construction sector is expected to grow at 8.9 per cent from 5.7 per cent previous fiscal.
  • Financial, real estate & professional services growth will be a tad higher at 6.8 per cent this fiscal against 6.6 per cent in 2017-18.

CSO also estimates per capita net national income during 2018-19 to be at Rs 1,25,397, an increase of 11.1 per cent as compared to Rs 1,12,835 during 2017-18 with the growth rate of 8.6 per cent.

Month: Categories: Business, Economy & BankingUPSC

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