mining and quarrying sector Current Affairs - 2019

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India to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19: CSO

The Central Statistics Office has released the first advance estimates of National Income for 2018-19. The observations made by CSO are:

  • Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19, a tad higher from 6.7 per cent in the 2018-18.
  • Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is expected to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal as against 6.5 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The expansion in activities in agriculture, forestry and fishing is likely to increase to 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal from 3.4 per cent in the preceding year.
  • Growth in the manufacturing sector is expected to increase to 8.3 per cent in 2018-19 up from 5.7 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The growth in the mining and quarrying sector is estimated to decline from 2.9 per cent in 2017-18 to 0.8 per cent in the current fiscal.
  • Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting will also witness deceleration to 6.9 per cent in 2018-19 from 8 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The growth rate of public administration, defence and other services will also dip to 8.9 per cent from 10 per cent last fiscal.
  • Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services growth is estimated at 9.4 per cent in 2018-19, up from 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.
  • The construction sector is expected to grow at 8.9 per cent from 5.7 per cent previous fiscal.
  • Financial, real estate & professional services growth will be a tad higher at 6.8 per cent this fiscal against 6.6 per cent in 2017-18.

CSO also estimates per capita net national income during 2018-19 to be at Rs 1,25,397, an increase of 11.1 per cent as compared to Rs 1,12,835 during 2017-18 with the growth rate of 8.6 per cent.

Revision of GDP Estimates

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2017-18. The highlights of the revised estimates are:

  • The forecast for GDP growth for 2017-18 was increased to 7.2% from the earlier estimate of 6.7%.
  • The actual growth rate in 2016-17 has been increased to 8.2% from the 7.1% estimated earlier.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation clarifies that the revision of the estimates for 2015-16 and 2016-17 are on the account of the availability of the latest data on agricultural production, industrial production, government expenditure (replacing the Revised Estimates with Actual for 2016-17) and also more comprehensive data available from various source agencies like the MCA and the NABARD and State/Union Territory Directorates of Economics and Statistics.

Criticisms against the Revision

The Economists criticise the revision because of the following reasons:

  • The numbers do not match up to the ground realities.
  • The data corresponding to the demonetisation year of 2016-17 shows strong growth in sectors that were widely agreed to have been badly hit by the exercise.
  • The main factor for the revision was the increase in private final consumption expenditure which was increased by 1 percentage point. This was inconsistent with the idea of people having less cash to make purchases.
  • The other main driver of the upward revision was the construction sector which was revised upwards by 4.7 percentage points. The earlier analyses had indicated that construction which has a large informal sector component was adversely affected similar to other informal sectors due to demonetisation.
  • Other drivers for the upward revision in 2017-18, mining and quarrying sector and the public administration sector had data that is compiled by the government itself. Hence they should not have undergone such a vast revision. .

With 2019 being a election year, critics also cry foul play on part of the government to project a happy picture before the general elections.